An expert has warned more ‘big floods are coming’ in Greater Manchester, citing climate change for causing increased ‘intense rainfall events’, residential development and aging infrastructure as key factors.
Professor Jamie Woodward said the New Year flooding across the region marked another unwanted record – a record he said that wouldn’t stand for long.
Authorities, he added, were ‘caught by surprise’ by an ‘exceptional’ storm on New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. Flood alleviation defences were activated in Sale, Trafford, but they could not prevent widespread flooding, Prof Woodward said.
A month’s worth of rain fell over 17 hours in Sale, with the River Mersey bursting its banks and flooding over the pathway and onto the fairways of Sale Golf Club.
Around 400 people were evacuated from flats at Meadow Mill in Stockport, with lower floors flooded and dozens of cars parked outside submerged. Elsewhere, and as the emergency services declared a major incident, cars were abandoned on flooded roads and homes damaged, with a hotel housing asylum seekers in Didsbury also evacuated.
Police said 50 properties in Didsbury were evacuated and ‘widespread’ flooding in Platt Bridge, Wigan, also led to evacuations. Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service said they attended more than 100 seperate incidents in total, with thankfully no reports of any casualties or serious injuries.
Flooding and rescue from the Britannia Hotel on Palatine Road in Didsbury
(Image: JMG Press)
Over the border into Cheshire, the Bridgewater Canal collapsed and breached at Little Bollington, on the edge of Dunham Massey Park, with the resulting landslip channeling water far and wide into surrounding fields.
But why is Greater Manchester being hit by so much flooding and why is it causing so much damage?
Referencing the ‘worrying’ collapse of the Bridgewater Canal, Prof Woodward, a Professor of Physical Geography in the Department of Geography at the University of Manchester and also a Fellow of the British Society for Geomorphology, spoke of a ‘ticking time bomb’, with many more flooding incidents predicted set against ‘aging’ flood embankments.
He said it was ‘of concern’ that the three biggest floods on the River Mersey that have been monitored at Ashton-on-Mersey in Sale have taken place in the last four years – and described the 2025 New Year flooding as another ‘record’ that would be soon broken.
Speaking to the Manchester Evening News, Prof Woodward said: “In Sale in south Manchester between 2.30pm on New Year’s Eve and 7.45am in the morning on New Year’s Day, more than 66mm of rain fell. That is about one month’s worth of rain in 17 hours.
Platt Bridge, Wigan
(Image: Ryan Jenkinson | Manchester Evening News)
“An average January in Manchester has about 87mm of rainfall – more up on the hills. This was an exceptional storm that led to flood waters rising very quickly overnight catching many people by surprise. I saw dozens of horses being rescued from the floodplain at Urmston.
“We need to make sure that flood warnings are issued effectively and people know how to respond on the ground. We have seen large floods in each decade since the monitored record on the upper Mersey began.
“At Ashton-on-Mersey in Sale, the record begins in 1958. It is of concern that the three biggest floods on the Mersey that have been monitored at Ashton-on-Mersey have taken place in the last four years. The flood on New Year’s Day is a new record, but that record may not last for long. That is a key concern.
“The bigger picture here is climate change. The climate is getting warmer. Both the oceans and atmosphere are warmer so they have more energy – a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so we are seeing more intense rainfall events, and we are very likely to see more big floods in the coming years.”
Bramhall Park roundabout
(Image: Andy Cronshaw)
Prof Woodward spoke out as the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, also admitted authorities were ‘taken by surprise’ by the torrential rainfall and subsequent flooding. There was no named storm announcement as torrential rainfall battered Greater Manchester, leading the emergency services to attend flooding in Bolton, Bowdon, Didsbury, Harpurhey, Stalybridge, Stockport and Wigan over the course of New Year’s Day.
Mr Burnham said there would be a review of the emergency response and whether sufficient warning was given.
Prof Woodward said existing flood defence infrastructure may be out of date.
“Much of our infrastructure was designed for a climate that no longer exists,” he told the M.E.N.
The breached Bridgewater Canal
(Image: Getty Images)
“The flood alleviation scheme at Sale Water Park was brought into action during this flood and it is a vital part of flood alleviation, but it could not prevent widespread flooding.
“The collapse of the Bridgewater Canal in Bollington is worrying. Thousands of properties in south Manchester are protected by aging flood embankments. If these fail, there will be widespread flooding of property. It’s a ticking time bomb.
“If you live next to a river, sooner or later, you will be flooded.”
Prof Woodward spoke of a need for more investment in flood management and water storage infrastructure for the worst-hit areas, although he admitted it was a ‘huge challenge’.
He said: “The government is under pressure to build 1.5 million homes in this Parliament – a key manifesto pledge. It will be a disaster if many of these new homes are built on floodplains.
“The clue is in the name – avoid development on floodplains – otherwise you create misery for people who are flooded and who cannot get insurance for their homes. There is a huge challenge for Greater Manchester and the rest of the UK for the maintenance of flood defences in all our river catchments.
The River Mersey by Sale Golf Club
(Image: UGC/MEN)
“We do need to see more investment into natural flood management and water storage in both rural environments and in our towns and cities.
“But we will see more flooding of properties because riverside development is already in place, and more big floods are coming.”
Jon Baylis, a weather forecaster based in Chadderton, Oldham, said rainfall was becoming ‘more intense’, contributing to flooding.
“Three out of the last six years have been wetter-than-average and on a whole, about 11-12 per cent wetter in those three years – 2019, 2020 and 2023,” he said.
“Yearly rainfall amounts might not be that much above the average, but our weather is turning less cold and with warmer seas, the rain that falls is becoming more intense.
“These magnified downpours, or heavier spells of rain during unsettled weather, are delivering more rain in a shorter space of time and this is contributing to flooding. Locally blocked drains, which I have seen for myself, is also a contributing factor, as the rainfall and water run-off can’t drain away at all, or the drainage is hampered.”