ON Monday, a new dawn rises over America.
Donald Trump will move back into the White House as he officially becomes President of the United States . . . again.
5
But what does a new term for Donald Trump mean for America – and the rest of the world? Four experts from The Sun give their predictionsCredit: AP
He goes down in history as only the second American leader to serve two non-consecutive terms. Before him, Grover Cleveland held power from 1885-1889, then from 1893 to 1897.
Vice President JD Vance will also take the oath of office at the inauguration in Washington, bringing to an end one of the most electrifying election races in recent history.
But what does it mean for America – and the rest of the world?
From tariffs and trade wars to diplomacy and global deals, we asked our experts to explain how the controversial ex-reality star could truly change the world.
READ MORE ON DONALD TRUMP
ECONOMY
By ASHLEY ARMSTRONG
Business Editor
5
The Sun’s Business Editor believes Trump’s tariffs will be a boost for the US, but there’s a risk of global trade tensions and rising inflationCredit: News Group Newspapers Ltd.
DONALD TRUMP has stoked fears of a tit-for-tat global trade war ever since declaring he believed “tariff” was the “most beautiful word in the dictionary”.
The returning President sees tariffs as a key tool to grow the US economy, protect jobs and raise tax revenue in the US.
He has threatened to issue punishing tariffs of as much as 60 per cent against China, Canada and Mexico — but the ripple could also catch out the UK and Europe, with ten to 20 per cent levies on imports.
The International Monetary Fund warned yesterday the risks to global growth from Trump tariffs could be higher this time, partly because the world is still limping out of an inflation crisis caused by Russia’s Ukraine invasion and the pandemic.
The IMF reckons the US economy will grow faster because of Trump, while other major economies will be slower as a result.
When Trump was in the White House eight years ago, he vowed to rewrite trade relations and introduced tariffs, particularly on steel and aluminium, to “make America great again”.
Trump ‘forced to move inauguration indoors’ for first time since 1985 as dangerously cold weather threatens big day
However, China retaliated and some companies shifted their factory productions elsewhere, such as to Vietnam and Mexico.
The problem Trump and other economies face is that the tariffs risk stoking inflation again.
That could mean central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, keep interest rates higher for longer.
In fact, Trump’s plans for aggressive tax cuts could be thwarted by market concerns about America’s huge public debt and rising interest costs.
The bond market has roared back to life since Trump’s victory and pushed US government debt costs higher.
Meanwhile, US federal debt now sits at more than $28trillion.
If companies and consumers have to pay more for imported goods as a result of tariffs, spending and investment may be squeezed in other areas of the economy.
Analysts reckon Trump’s tariffs could cost British industry £2.5billion a year if the threatened 20 per cent tax on goods imported to the US comes in.
The main sectors hit would likely be fishing, pharmaceutical and manufacturing.
Manufacturers and industry already complain that the UK is hampered by significantly higher energy costs than in the US.
They pray the “special relationship” between the US and UK could help us swerve some of the most punitive tariffs.
The UK could always respond with taxes on Jack Daniel’s whisky and Levi’s jeans, which would make them more expensive to buy.
The prospect of a trade deal with the US has fallen down in the past on issues around agriculture and food — Brits do not want hormone-injected beef nor chlorine-washed chicken.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said a few months ago food was not on the table in the US talks. The Government can’t risk angering farmers further.
ENERGY
By ROSS CLARK
Author of Not Zero
5
Sun columnist and author Ross Clark says Trump’s energy policies prioritise US self-sufficiency and fossil fuels, highlighting Britain’s reliance on US energy imports and exposing challenges with UK’s renewable strategiesCredit: Matthew Lloyd – The Times
FOR some, Donald Trump is an environmental vandal who is trying to condemn the world to a future of climatic doom by tearing up the US’s carbon commitments and instructing the oil and gas industry to “drill, baby drill”.
He also happens to be the incoming President of a country upon which Britain is becoming increasingly reliant for our energy needs.
In 2016 — the year that Trump won his first election — we imported no gas from the US at all.
By 2023, we were buying a quarter of our gas from the US in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) brought here in refrigerated ships.
It is a similar story with oil.
In 2016, the US accounted for 7.2 per cent of UK oil imports.
By 2023, however, the US had overtaken Norway to become our single biggest supplier, accounting for 22.4 per cent of imports.
Without Trump’s unashamed championing of the fossil fuel industry during his first term, Britain would have faced a much deeper and more prolonged energy crisis following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As if it were not clear already, Trump is about to expose the folly of Britain’s — and especially Ed Miliband’s — energy policy.
While our government continues to force the North Sea into submission and pursues the fantasy that rapid investment in wind and solar will bring us lower bills and greater energy security, Trump will pursue a policy which genuinely brings affordable bills and promotes national self-sufficiency.
That doesn’t mean no renewables — actually, the output of US wind turbines grew by a third during Trump’s first term.
Unlike Britain, however, the US will not be trying to get by on intermittent sources of energy alone.
Consumers there will continue to enjoy cheap energy derived from well-diversified sources.
Trump has been accused of giving in to “Big Oil” in that his appointee as Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, has led a fracking company.
Yet Wright also has interests in modular nuclear reactors and geothermal energy — two forms of low-carbon energy.
As Wright himself has put it: “I don’t care where energy comes from, so long as it is secure, reliable, affordable and betters human lives.”
In other words, if wind and solar energy did ever become as cheap as Miliband makes out, Trump’s energy policy would not prevent US consumers from benefitting from that.
Miliband and Keir Starmer can bleat all they like about Trump’s disdain for Net Zero targets, but Britain’s reliance on Trump for gas and oil will fatally undermine their case.
As Britain continues to bet its economy on intermittent forms of energy, US policy will ensure that the gap between US and UK economic growth continues to widen.
WOKERY
By HARRY COLE
Political Editor
5
The Sun’s Political Editor Harry Cole highlights how Trump’s return has signalled a shift as major corporations and institutions scale back diversity initiatives, reflecting a changing tide in America’s cultural and political landscapeCredit: News Group Newspapers Ltd.
TRUMP is not even through the doors of the West Wing yet and already he’s winning the war on woke.
Corporate America is tripping over itself to adjust to the new America after his thumping defeat of Kamala Harris.
She went out of her way to be right-on, with devastating effect — to her own numbers at the ballot box.
When they saw profit in woke, US firms went full snowflake in the wake of the riots following the death of George Floyd five years ago.
Trans rights activists also hectored firms into censorship and adopting aggressive policies promoting minorities.
Companies around the world all got on the bandwagon, and before long you couldn’t get to a till anywhere without being virtue-signalled by the big brands.
But before Trump has even been sworn in, it seems these same bores have got a sense of where the wind is blowing among their customers.
Shopping giant Walmart has already ditched its diversity and inclusion policies, including scrapping overtly sexual and transgender-related products aimed at kids.
Racial training programmes were also quietly shelved, as were large payments to grifting organisations that rank corporate America for their LGBTQ+ friendliness.
“We’ve been on a journey and know we aren’t perfect,” the supermarket said.
All-American car firm Ford quickly followed suit. And you can’t get much more American than McDonald’s, who scrapped diversity hiring goals and targets to increase the number of non-whites in senior positions.
But nothing has been as totemic as the sudden about-turn by Meta — the owner of Facebook.
The first sign something was up was the mysterious ousting of former Deputy PM Nick Clegg, who had reinvented himself in California, while lining his pockets as the king of the wokies.
Earlier this month, he was replaced as Facebook’s top lobbyist by a Trump-friendly Republican.
Days later, tech billionaire weirdo Mark Zuckerberg announced the firm would be ending years of censorship of right-wingers through news and banning memes.
His liberal enemies quickly accused him of “bending the knee” to the incoming White House.
Fast-forward a few days and even the FBI felt safe to break free from policies implemented to try to please the political Left.
Quite why crimefighters needed an Office of Diversity and Inclusion in the first place remains a mystery, but it’s gone.
Republican congressman Steve Scalise had slammed law enforcement in the wake of the New Orleans terror attack, saying its “inclusionary initiatives” had distracted agents from their job of protecting Americans.
“Some of these agencies have gotten so wrapped up in the DEI movement . . . where their main focus is on diversity and inclusion as opposed to security.
“And they’re two very different things. And we’ve got to get back to that core mission.”
Tennessee senator Marsha Blackburn agreed, accusing the FBI of losing sight of its “core mission”, adding: “Americans now feel increasingly unsafe, and the FBI’s prioritisation of diversity over competence shows that their concerns are well founded.”
If that’s what is happening before Trump even arrives, the shackles of woke will surely be shed further once The Don is reinstated as president next week.
And maybe now we’ll finally be able to buy a burger, a pair of trainers or a car without being subjected to a woke lecture.
GEOPOLITICS
By JEROME STARKEY
Defence Editor
5
The Sun’s Defence Editor predicts Trump’s foreign policy will focus on peace through strength, pushing Nato allies to increase defence spending, and confronting China on key global issues
TRUMP’S grand geo-strategy boils down to world peace with an arms race.
He wants to broker historic peace deals and make allies pay more for their own defence.
He has already claimed credit for this week’s “epic” Gaza ceasefire.
He vowed to end the war in Ukraine in a day (though his envoy, Keith Kellogg, said 100 days is more likely).
And he has put Nato allies on notice to treble their defence spending — so they can look after themselves — while America squares up to China over minerals, manufacturing and AI.
He has said he will protect Taiwan but wants Taiwan to pay for it. He wants a big and mighty military, but doesn’t want his soldiers fighting. And he doesn’t mind who that hurts.
The last time he was in office, Trump ordered a lightning-fast withdrawal from Syria which left local allies in the lurch.
He cut a disastrous deal with the Taliban which led — under President Biden — to Britain and America’s humiliating retreat from Afghanistan.
This time round, his focus will be Ukraine, the Middle East and China.
Ukraine fears he will abandon them and capitulate to the Kremlin. But Trump dreads being seen as a loser.
Recently, he said “the only way to reach an agreement is not to abandon Ukraine”.
Expect him to knock heads in Moscow and make Europe police any ceasefire.
In the Middle East, he is staunchly pro-Israel and staunchly pro-Saudi Arabia (he famously bragged that he saved Mohammed bin Salman’s “ass” after the bone-saw murder of a journalist made the Crown Prince a global pariah).
He shows no love for a two-state solution.
Any concessions to Palestinians will be aimed squarely at Saudi Arabia, where he hopes to broker a historic “normalisation” of relations with Israel.
He sees China as an arch-rival. He called their competition over AI a “world-changing race”.
And he has vowed to “completely eliminate dependence on China”, including tech, medicine and manufacturing.